Gartner’s famous technology hype cycle is applied by the eponymous consulting group to understand if or how soon a promising technology will become a well-established tool. The last few years have seen predictive analytics becoming more common in business and news reports. However, we have seen Gartner show Predictive Analytics for only the last couple of years of their annual hype cycle reports.
Explicitly, Predictive Analytics has been seen in their hype cycle chart only in 2010 and 2011, although other related technologies such as behavioral economics, social network analysis, and text mining have been spotted on and off since 2003. This site describes the annual hype cycles which have been around since 2001.
Recently one of the more popular discussion groups on LinkedIn shared some of their membership growth statistics, and we thought it would be interesting to see if there was some correlation between the interest of professionals and Gartner’s classification of the level of hype for predictive analytics. The results were indeed very interesting.
We do not have access to the actual data set from the discussion group, so the numbers were simply read off from the chart shared in a LinkedIn group. Hence there are no claims of accuracy, but only claims of capturing the trends! The growth in new memberships appears to be parabolic, somewhat similar to the mature phases of the Gartner hype cycle.
Gartner is indicating that predictive analytics will very soon reach the “Plateau of Productivity” phase which means that the technology is becoming mature.
Now the question is, will the interest among professionals level off in the coming years or will it show its own hype cycle, albeit with a lower degree of exponentiation? What do you think?
Originally posted on Tue, Nov 15, 2011 @ 08:58 AM