Risk introduced by modelers of risk management - part 2

Posted by Bala Deshpande on Tue, Mar 15, 2011 @ 10:30 AM

In a previous article we discussed what problems models and their assumptions introduced which could have precipitated the subprime crisis. Now let’s look at the analysts or the modelers themselves.

Read More

Tags: business analytics software, risk management, risk

Risk of using Models in Risk Management - Part 1

Posted by Bala Deshpande on Fri, Mar 11, 2011 @ 09:38 AM

There is a pithy quote from someone (it could be the Black Swan guy) which goes something like "Dont cross a river because it is on average 4 foot deep".

Read More

Tags: data mining tools, business analytics software, business intelligence tools, risk management, risk

Reduce mortgage supply chain risk in 2 steps with systems thinking

Posted by Bala Deshpande on Wed, Feb 23, 2011 @ 11:08 AM

Read More

Tags: real time analytics, systems thinking, supply chain, risk

A simple way to measure Information in Risk and Business Analytics

Posted by Bala Deshpande on Tue, Feb 22, 2011 @ 12:29 PM

Read More

Tags: data mining tools, risk management, entropy, risk

Using Entropy for business analytics and risk management

Posted by Bala Deshpande on Mon, Oct 25, 2010 @ 06:30 PM

We recently encountered a fairly experienced risk manager who was very well-versed in quantitative methods, unlike a vast majority of "check-box" risk managers. His question was, what new information does entropy give him that his current sophisticated Bayesian models and analyses don’t? Business analytics professionals may have the same question.

Read More

Tags: risk management, entropy, risk

World Economic Forum needs a primer on risk analytics

Posted by Bala Deshpande on Thu, Oct 21, 2010 @ 04:00 PM

The venerable World Economic Forum recently published their 5th annual "Global Risks" report. While clearly this is a very timely analysis, we see a few problems with their report.

Read More

Tags: risk management, complexity analysis, global economic fragility, risk, uncertainty

2 pitfalls to beware of with traditional risk management - part 1

Posted by Bala Deshpande on Tue, Sep 28, 2010 @ 02:07 PM

Traditional risk analysis involves developing what are known as "ordinal scoring" scales. For example, this requires getting executives to answer questions like "what is the likelihood that the next major database upgrade will be delayed", "what is the impact of the hurricane season on the availability of medicines for our troops" etc.

Read More

Tags: data mining tools, business analytics software, business intelligence tools, risk management, risk, uncertainty, complexity management