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Affordable Risk Analytics - Demand Uncertainty with ModelRisk: Part 3

  
  
  
risk analytics demand uncertainty problem

In part 1 we explained why small and medium businesses or SMEs needed risk analytics. In part 2 we described a few common risk related issues that affect SMEs. In this concluding part, we will describe a very basic scenario that relates to the twin problems of capacity utilization and demand uncertainty.

Is predictive analytics a misnomer?

  
  
  
do models capture reality photo by bterrycompton

Frank Buytendiyk in his wide ranging article here makes an argument for

Risk management in 60 seconds: Insights from Entropy

  
  
  

World Economic Forum needs a primer on risk analytics

  
  
  
global risk analytics

The venerable World Economic Forum recently published their 5th annual "Global Risks" report. While clearly this is a very timely analysis, we see a few problems with their report.

Supply chain complexity increase continues unabated

  
  
  
supply chain complexity and fragility

In a recent survey conducted by GXS - an e-commerce and B2B integration services company, 84% of more than 800 respondents from the logistics industry said that they expect supply chain complexity to increase in the next three years. Furthermore experts who ran the survey indicated that the leaders will be the ones who can "master and manage this complexity".

2 pitfalls to beware of with traditional risk management - part 1

  
  
  
did we assess this risk?

Traditional risk analysis involves developing what are known as "ordinal scoring" scales. For example, this requires getting executives to answer questions like "what is the likelihood that the next major database upgrade will be delayed", "what is the impact of the hurricane season on the availability of medicines for our troops" etc.

Risk, Uncertainty and Complexity

  
  
  
risk and complexity management

There are apparently many different definitions of risk as there are practicing groups. But most definitions involve computing some form of probability of an event. Doug Hubbard in his book "Failure of Risk Management" makes a very convincing argument for standardizing the definition by invoking the difference between Risk and Uncertainty.

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